Future Outlook
By: Corey Butler, Wealth Advisor
2022 is in our rear-view mirror and 2023 is now staring us in the face with a sea of uncertainty. Inflation, supply chain, Covid, China, Ukraine war, stagflation, interest rates… it never ends. This is where you come to the realization that you can only control your own day to day decisions and life. The world has, and will always have, issues. As far back as we can look, there is always civil unrest, famine, war, and natural disasters. So why do we react with such negative assumptions when we know history always repeats itself? Markets go up and markets go down. Buyers and sellers get to make their decision on what something is worth and whether there is upside or downside.
If we look at real estate which is under pressure as of late with massive interest rate increases by both the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve. Market values have certainly retreated as of late, offering a lower entry point for buyers, but with interest rates at current levels, we essentially end up in the same place with monthly payments vs 2021 pricing. The exposed variable rate debt has gotten much more expensive but when compared to the 5-year fixed rate, the variable is still cheaper option. We need to accept that these rates are going to stay much higher than what we experienced throughout the pandemic. Historical Prime Rate Average has been 5-6%. If you look out over the next 20-25 years at a modest 5% growth rate on real estate, you still have more than doubled the home value. It is an incredible asset class.
There are so many conflicting outlooks across all sectors which result in complete paralysis in making decisions or taking a stance. A well-diversified investment portfolio is truly the key to your success during turbulent times. “The trend is your friend until it’s not, and trying to catch a falling knife hurts a lot.” These are wise words bestowed on me from mentors that I have had the pleasure to work beside.
An Investment Policy Statement “IPS” is one of the best ways to keep yourself on the straight and narrow to not get tactical during turbulent times. An IPS becomes your compass to help you find the North Star. It should be reviewed annually with your wealth advisor to ensure risk, goals, and behaviour are on track. If you currently have not created an IPS roadmap, please feel free to reach out and we can grab a coffee to discuss.